Examiner: Why the Polls are Tightening Up

Originally posted by The Washington Examiner


Maybe Hillary Clinton isn’t going to be elected president after all. That’s a thought that’s evoking glee in some, nausea in others, terror in some and relief at the removal of an increasingly tedious figure from public view in still more.

The thought is prompted by the CNN/ORC poll showing Clinton trailing Donald Trump in a four-candidate matchup by a 45 percent to 43 percent margin. Clinton’s lead in the RealClearPolitics.com average of recent polls is down from 7.6 percent on Aug. 9 to 2.4 percent today. The fivethirtyeight.com website has Trump’s chances of winning up to 33 percent.

The CNN/ORC poll has been criticized for having more self-identified Republicans than Democrats. Since random sample polling was invented in 1935, there hasn’t been a presidential election in which self-identified Republicans outnumbered self-identified Democrats. The closest was in 2004, when the exit poll showed both parties with 37 percent.

But there may be something to learn from CNN/ORC’s decision to whittle their sample down to likely voters. The Clinton campaign’s goal has been to replicate Barack Obama’s 51 percent coalition in 2012. Assembling that coalition relied on spurring turnout among black, Hispanic and young voters.

To read the full article, Click here!